GDP Growth

—

↓ from 8.2%

CPI Inflation

—

Repo Rate

—

RBI Policy

INR / USD

—

↑ Weakening

Exports YoY

—

Unemployment

—

Urban CMIE

ML Model Prediction

—

Confidence: —

Slowdown

00%

Stable

00%

Warning

00%

CV Accuracy~80%

Training data52 quarters

AlgorithmEnsemble

Sector Health Click to drill down

Manufacturing (PMI)

00.0

Healthy

Banking & Finance

00.0%

Healthy

Agriculture

0.0%

Healthy

Trade & Exports

00%

Healthy

Employment & Labour

0.0%

Healthy

Foundation Score

Same 18 indicators · transparent threshold check

—

Unlike the ML model above (a trained ensemble forecasting next quarter), this score is a plain count of how many of the same indicators are currently past a known weak-zone threshold — no prediction, just today's snapshot, fully explainable.

Historical Shock Overlay Real model, run on real historical quarters

See what the same trained model actually output during India's most-discussed slowdown episodes — pulled straight from its own training data, not re-estimated.

Pick a period above to compare it against today.

Demand & Supply Indicators MOSPI · RBI · SIAM · NSE · CGA

Demand Side

Private Consumption (PFCE)

7.0%

YoY Growth · MOSPI

Two-Wheeler Sales

+14.8%

Rural demand proxy · SIAM

Rural Wage Growth

3.8%

Real wages YoY · Labour Bureau

Govt Capital Expenditure

₹12.2L Cr

FY25 Budget · CGA

Supply Side

Core Sector Growth

0.5%

8-core industries · DPIIT

Capacity Utilization

75.6%

RBI OBICUS survey

WPI Inflation

8.3%

Wholesale prices · DPIIT

Corporate Earnings (PAT)

4.5%

Nifty 50 YoY · NSE

Additional Indicators GST · NPCI · Grid-India · Railways · NSE

High-Frequency Indicators RBI · MOSPI · CMIE · MoC

12-Month Trend

Value Avg Alert threshold

Feature Importance Random Forest

Historical Slowdown Comparison 2019 · COVID · Current

GDP Growth (%) Export Growth (%) Unemployment (%)

AI Analysis

Click "Run Analysis" to get AI-powered economic insights based on current live indicators.

Learn & Ask

Economic terms explained simply — ask the AI anything

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Powered by Gemini AI · For educational purposes only · Not official financial advice

About this Project

Research Paper

AI Driven Early Detection of Economic Slowdown in India Using Multi Sector High Frequency Indicators

Presented at NCMPCS-2026, Department of CSE, FOET, Dr. Shakuntala Misra National Rehabilitation University, Lucknow.

ML Model

Ensemble of Random Forest + Gradient Boosting trained on 52 quarterly observations (FY2013–FY2025).
5-fold CV accuracy: 78.6% | LOO accuracy: 68.8%

Data Sources

MOSPI (GDP, CPI, IIP, Agri GVA) · RBI (Credit, Repo Rate, Forex) · CMIE CPHS (Unemployment) · S&P Global (PMI) · Ministry of Commerce (Exports)

Tech Stack

Python · Flask · scikit-learn · pandas · Chart.js · Vercel · GitHub Open Datasets (live CPI/GDP)